CHA2DS2-VASc stroke risk score

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The CHA2DS2-VASc stroke risk score calculates stroke risk for patients with atrial fibrillation.

This model is intended to be used for patients who have been diagnosed with atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter.

Research authors: Gregory Y.H. Lip, Robby Nieuwlaat, Ron Pisters, Deirdre A. Lane, Harry J.G.M. Crijns

Version: 1.19

Public
Cardiology
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V-1.19-2464.23.10.09

(01)08720299526419(8012)v1.19(4326)231009(240)2464

Download the User manual for Medical device prediction models and consult the Intended purpose.

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Release Notes
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Details
Intended purpose
Electronic label
Release Notes
User manual
Languages

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Calculated CHA2DS2-VASc risk score:

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Calculated CHA2DS2-VASc risk score: points

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Conditional information

The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score is recommended to be used for stroke risk assessment in patients with atrial fibrillation by different international clinical practice guidelines (such as the ESC guideline, AHA guideline, and the NICE guideline). The CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was developed as an improved score compared to the CHADS₂.

Even though the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score shows a moderate to good performance in terms of discrimination (C-index ranges between 0.6 - 0.71) in validation studies. The model should be used to identify patients at truly low risk.

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Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement. See our full disclaimer.

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Additional information

Details

Model author

Evidencio.Medical.Devices

Model ID

10187

Version

1.19

Revision date

2023-10-09

Specialty

Cardiology

Model type

Linear model ^{(Calculation)}

MeSH terms

Atrial Fibrillation

Clinical Prediction Rule

Stroke

Status

Public

Formula
No Formula defined yet

Condition	Formula

Study characteristics

Additional information

CHA2DS2-VASc score (Birmingham 2009) was developed after identifying additional stroke risk factors in patients with atrial fibrillation. Validation study included 1,084 patients with non-valvular AF, not on anticoagulation, over age 18 with EKG or Holter diagnosed AF in the ambulatory and hospital settings from 182 hospitals in 35 countries from 2003 to 2004 and had known thromboembolic status at 1 year from the Euro Heart Survey database. End point used was stroke or other thromboembolic event. Used previously developed Birmingham 2009 schema, under the acronym CHA2DS2-VASc. Study showed that as CHA2DS2-VASc score increased, rate of thromboembolic event within 1 year in non-anticoagulated patients with non-valvular AF increased as well. Considered score of 0 to be low risk for TE events (none seen in cohort at one year), score of 1 intermediate risk (0.6% rate at 1 year), and greater than 1 high risk (3% rate at 1 year). Points to keep in mind: 31% of the patients in their original study group were lost to follow-up at one year and thus were not included in the analysis. These patients could have had thromboembolic events, causing them to be lost to follow-up. There was no statistically significant difference found between the CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 risk stratification schema in predicting TE events. None of the included patients were anticoagulated. Those at particularly high risk for a TE event may have been already anticoagulated by their PMD, potentially skewing the TE rates. A subsequent study examining the performance of CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting TE events on anticoagulated patients also identified CAD and smoking as potential additional risk factors for TE in this subset of patients. However, that study also did not show a statistical difference in the predictive avarious risk stratification abilities of the scores.

Study Population

Total population size: 1084

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Females: {{ model.numberOfFemales }}

Continuous characteristics

Name	Mean	SD	Unit
Age	66	14	years
Systolic blood pressure	139	23	mmHg
Left ventricular ejection fraction	53	14	%

Name	LL	Q1	Median	Q3	UL	Unit
TE	12	23	66	134	222	t

Categorical characteristics

Name	Subset / Group	Nr. of patients
Age	≥75	309
Age	<75	775
Past medical history: stroke	Yes	45
Past medical history: stroke	No	1039
Past medical history: transient ischemic attack	Yes	46
Past medical history: transient ischemic attack	No	1038
Past medical history: other systemic embolism	Yes	6
Past medical history: other systemic embolism	No	1078
Past medical history: coronary artery disease	Yes	412
Past medical history: coronary artery disease	No	672
Past medical history: peripheral vascular disease	Yes	62
Past medical history: peripheral vascular disease	No	1022
Past medical history: hypertension	Yes	729
Past medical history: hypertension	No	355
Past medical history: diabetes mellitus	Yes	187
Past medical history: diabetes mellitus	No	897
Past medical history: heart failure	Yes	253
Past medical history: heart failure	No	831
Drugs: ACE inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker	Yes	607
Drugs: ACE inhibitor/angiotensin II receptor blocker	No	477
Drugs: Statins	Yes	252
Drugs: Statins	No	834
Drugs: antiplatetelet drugs	Yes	802
Drugs: antiplatetelet drugs	No	282

Supporting Publications

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Extra Information

	Evidencio B.V., Irenesingel 19, 7481 GJ Haaksbergen, The Netherlands
	V-1.19-2464.23.10.09
	(01)08720299526419(8012)v1.19(4326)231009(240)2464
	Download the User manual for Medical device prediction models
	Medical device

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This model has been certified as a medical device

V-1.19-2464.23.10.09

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Calculated CHA2DS2-VASc risk score: points

Conditional information

Details

Study characteristics

Additional information

Study Population

Continuous characteristics

Categorical characteristics

Supporting Publications

Related files

This model has been certified as a medical device

This is a paid model

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