Bach model: the 1-year probability of lung cancer diagnosis.
Model described by Bach et al. predicts the probability of being diagnosed with lung cancer within the next year. The model was developed using subjects enrolled in the Carotene and Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET); a large, randomized trial of lung cancer prevention. 
Research authors: Peter B. Bach, Michael W. Kattan, Mark D. Thornquist, Mark G. Kris, Ramsey C. Tate, Matt J. Barnett, Lillian J. Hsieh, Colin B. Begg
Version: 1.13
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CPD

10
60
Cigarettes

Duration of smoking

25
55
Years

Quit smoking

0
20
Years

Age

50
75
Years

Asbestos exposure

Gender

The 1-year probability of being diagnosed with lung cancer is: ... %

Set all parameters to calculate prediction.

This model should be used together with the Bach Model: The 1-year probability of death in the absene of lung cancer diagnosis. Iterative use of both models estimates the probability of lung cancer diagnosis over a longer time horizon than 1 year. 

This model is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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