Risk of in-hospital death in patients requiring thoracic surgery (Thoracoscore)
Predicts in-hospital mortality among patients after general thoracic surgery (c-index: 0.86). 
Research authors: Falcoz PE, Conti M, Brouchet L, Chocron S, Puyraveau M, Mercier M, Etievent JP, and Dahan M.
Version: 1.31
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RIsk of in-hospital death in patient requiring thoracic surgery:

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How this model should be used: 
This model predicts in-hospital mortality among patients after general thoracic surgery. The model uses patient and clinical data that are available before surgery. 

Model performance:
The model was reliable (Hosmer–Lemeshow test 3.22; P 0.92) and accurate, with a c-index of 0.85 (95% CI: 0.83-0.87) for the training set (n=10,122) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.83-0.89) for the validation set (n=5,061) of data. The correlation between the expected and observed number of deaths was 0.99.

Model limitations: 
This model deals only with in-hospital mortality, which is an imperfect surrogate for the risk of death attributable to surgery and only one factor in decision making. Second, unmeasured variables are likely to contribute to imprecision in this prediction model, which describes risk with only 9 variables. An indication that the effect is small in these data, however, is the relatively small remaining area under the ROC curve.

Source:
Falcoz PE, Conti M, Brouchet L, et al. The Thoracic Surgery Scoring System (Thoracoscore): risk model for in-hospital death in 15,183 patients requiring thoracic surgery. J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2007;133(2):325-32.

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This model is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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