Probability of biopsy-detectable prostate cancer (PCPTRC 1.0) - Evidencio
Probability of biopsy-detectable prostate cancer (PCPTRC 1.0)
Calculates the probability of biopsy-detectable prostate cancer according to the prostate cancer prevention trial risk calculator 1.0 (c-index: 0.70). 

Note: This model is only applicable for persons without a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer.
Research authors: Thompson IM, Ankerst DP, Chi C, Goodman PJ, Tangen CM, Lucia MS, Feng Z, Parnes HL, Coltman CA Jr.
Version: 1.40
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  • Oncology
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Probability of biopsy-detectable prostate cancer:

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This predictive model allows an individualized assessment of prostate cancer risk and risk of high-grade disease for men who undergo a prostate biopsy. No specific level of risk is recommended for prostate biopsy and this decision should be an individual choice based upon a physician-patient relationship.

Applicability of the model:  
Most men in the underlying study by Thompson et al (2006) were white and results may be different with other ethnicities or races. The calculator is in principle only applicable to men under the following restrictions:

  • Age 55 or older
  • No previous diagnosis of prostate cancer
  • DRE and PSA results less than 1 year old

Model performance: 
The average out-of-sample discriminative power (c-index) for the model by Thompson et al (2006) was 0.70. 

Modification of the PCPTRC:
In 2012, the updated PCPTRC 2.0 was released with the added capability to provide prediction of low-grade (Gleason grade < 7) versus high-grade prostate cancer. PCPTRC 2.0 was based on re-analysis of an expanded set of 6664 biopsies from 5826 patients from the PCPT placebo arm. Characteristics of the patients and biopsies forming PCPTRC 2.0 are similar to those used for the original PCPTRC, but the new PCPTRC 2.0 generally provides lower risk estimates due to the inclusion of multiple prior negative biopsies per individual rather than just one biopsy per person. 

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This algorithm is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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