Long-term disease-free survival after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma
Objective: To develop a prediction model for long-term disease-free survival (DFS) after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

Background: Despite high recurrence rates, approximately 10% of patients have DFS ≥ five years after PDAC resection. A long-term DFS prediction model may aid clinicians in surveillance- and treatment-related decisions.

Methods: This nationwide cohort study included all consecutive patients who underwent PDAC resection in the Netherlands (2014-2016). The best performing prognostic model was selected by Cox proportional hazard analysis and Akaike’s information criterion and presented by hazard ratio’s (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). Internal validation of the model was performed using 1000 bootstrap samples, and discrimination and calibration indices were assessed.

Results: Overall, 836 patients with a median follow-up of 67 months (interquartile range 51-79) were analyzed. DFS ≥ five years was seen in 118 patients (14%). Factors independently associated with DFS ≥ five years were low preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (logarithmic; HR 1.21; 95%CI 1.10-1.32), absence of vascular resection (HR 1.33; 95%CI 1.12-1.58), T1 tumor stage (versus T3; HR 1.52; 95%CI 1.14-2.04), well/moderate tumor differentiation (versus poor; HR 1.44; 95%CI 1.22-1.68), absence of perineural invasion (HR 1.42; 95%CI 1.11-1.81), N0 and N1 nodal status (versus N2; HR 1.92; 95%CI 1.54-2.40, and HR 1.33; 95%CI 1.11-1.60, respectively), R0≥1 mm resection margin status (versus R1<1 mm; HR 1.25; 95%CI 1.07-1.46), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 1.74; 95%CI 1.47-2.06). Moderate performance (concordance index 0.68) with adequate calibration (calibration slope 0.99) was achieved.

Conclusion: The developed prediction model, readily available at www.pancreascalculator.com, can be used to estimate the probability of DFS ≥ five years after PDAC resection. This may aid prognostication and shared decision-making for individual patients after PDAC resection.
Research authors: Iris W.J.M. van Goor, Thijs J. Schouten, Hjalmar C. van Santvoort, Lois A. Daamen, I. Quintus Molenaar
Version: 1.58
  • Public
  • Surgery
  • {{ modelType }}
  • Details
  • Validate model
  • Save input
  • Load input
Display
Units

{{section.title}}

Calculate the result

Set more parameters to perform the calculation

chance of reaching a disease-free survival of at least five years after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

{{ resultSubheader }}
{{ chart.title }}
Result interval {{ additionalResult.min }} to {{ additionalResult.max }}

Conditional information

{{ file.classification }}
PRO
Note
Notes are only visible in the result download and will not be saved by Evidencio

This model is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

Underlying models Part of
Comments
Comment
Please enter a comment
Comments are visible to anyone

Model feedback

No feedback yet 1 Comment {{ model.comments.length }} Comments
On {{ comment.created_at }} {{ comment.user.username }} a no longer registered author wrote:
{{ comment.content }}
logo

Please sign in to enable Evidencio print features

In order to use the Evidencio print features, you need to be logged in.
If you don't have an Evidencio Community Account you can create your free personal account at:

https://www.evidencio.com/registration

Printed results - Examples {{ new Date().toLocaleString() }}

Evidencio Community Account Benefits

With an Evidencio Community account you can:

  • Create and publish your own prediction models.
  • Share your prediction models with your colleagues, research group, organization or the world.
  • Review and provide feedback on models that have been shared with you.
  • Validate your models and validate models from other users.
  • Find models based on Title, Keyword, Author, Institute, or MeSH classification.
  • Use and save prediction models and their data.
  • Use patient specific protocols and guidelines based on sequential models and decision trees.
  • Stay up-to-date with new models in your field as they are published.
  • Create your own lists of favorite models and topics.

A personal Evidencio account is free, with no strings attached!
Join us and help create clarity, transparency, and efficiency in the creation, validation, and use of medical prediction models.

Disclaimer: Calculations alone should never dictate patient care, and are no substitute for professional judgement.
Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy | Disclaimer | Contact | Refuse cookies |
Evidencio v3.31 © 2015 - 2024 Evidencio. All Rights Reserved