Individual risk for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy - point score
This model estimates the risk of pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy based on a point score (c-statistic: 0.716)
Research authors: Callery MP, Pratt WB, Kent TS, Chaikof EL, Vollmer CM.
Version: 1.15
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  • Oncology
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Calculated risk score for postoperative pancreatic fistula:

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Original study population
In the modeling group (N=233) of the original study (Callery et al, 2013), clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistulas occurred in 13% of the patients. The incidence was greatest with excessive blood loss. Duct size <5 mm was associated with increased fistula rates that rose with even smaller ducts. These factors, together with soft pancreatic parenchyma and certain disease pathologies, afforded a highly predictive 10-point Fistula Risk Score. Risk scores strongly correlated with fistula development (p<0.001). 

References

  1. Callery MP, Pratt WB, Kent TS, Chaikof EL, Vollmer CM. A prospectively validated risk score accurately predicts pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy. J Am Coll Surg. 2013; 216(1):1–14.
  2. Miller BC, Christein JD, Behrman SW, Drebin JA, Pratt WB, Callery MP, Vollmer CM. A multi-institutional external validation of the fistula risk score for pancreatoduodenectomy. J Gastrointest Surg. 2014;18(1):172-79. 

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This model is provided for educational, training and information purposes. It must not be used to support medical decision making, or to provide medical or diagnostic services. Read our full disclaimer.

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