The ABC Bleeding risk score
The ABC (Age, Biomarkers, Clinical history) bleeding risk score has been developed to predict the risk of bleeding in patients with atrial fibrillation. The ABC bleeding risk score is internally and externally validated using two clinical trial databases.

This model is intended to be used for patients who have been diagnosed with either paroxysmal, persistent or permanent atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter and with at least one or more of the risk factors. The full inclusion and exclusion criteria are stated in the intended use.
Research authors: Ziad Hijazi, Jonas Oldgren, Johan Lindbäck, John H Alexander, Stuart J Connolly, John W Eikelboom, Michael D Ezekowitz, Claes Held, Elaine M Hylek, Renato D Lopes, Agneta Siegbahn, Salim Yusuf, Christopher B Granger, Lars Wallentin, ARISTOTLE and RE-LY Investigators
Version: 2.5
Download the User manual for Medical device prediction models and consult the Intended use.
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The calculated bleeding risk is: %

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Conditional information

The current model calculates the risk of bleeding occurring within the next one, two, or three years. Even though the tool may support decision involving the initiation of anticoagulant treatment, a high bleeding risk alone should not immediately lead to withholding anticoagulation. 

The ABC bleeding risk score was externally validated and compared head-to-head with similar prediction models such as the HAS-BLED score. The external validation of the ABC score resulted in a c-index of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.66 - 0.71) versus 0.62 (95% CI: 0.60 - 0.64) for the HAS-BLED score. 

Depending on the selected biomarker, the model may perform slightly different. Still, all possible combinations of biomarkers resulted in similar model performance in terms of discrimination with C-indexes ranging between 0.68 and 0.71 on internal validation. Each of the six ABC bleeding risk score models performed better than the HAS-BLED score. 

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