Conditional survival in patients with resectable esophageal cancer - Evidencio
Conditional survival in patients with resectable esophageal cancer
Most provided survival rates in current literature are static, calculated from the day of surgery. But as time proceeds after surgery, the risk of death in esophageal cancer patients changes. Conditional survival accounts for the time already survived after surgery and may be informative in addition to conventional estimates during follow-up. This nomogram shows an accurate prediction of survival in patients after esophageal cancer surgery, taking the years already survived after surgery into account. This nomogram can be helpful in counselling patients in the follow-up after surgery.
Auteurs: E.R.C. Hagens, MD, M.L. Feenstra, MD, W.J. Eshuis, MD, PhD , M.C.C.M. Hulshof, MD, PhD, H.W.M. van Laarhoven, MD, PhD, M.I. van Berge Henegouwen, MD, PhD, S.S. Gisbertz, MD, PhD
Versie: 1.28
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Probability of survival 5-years after neoadjuvant chemoradiation and esophageal resection is %, given the number of years already survived

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Conditionele informatie

This model calculates 5-year survival after neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CROSS regimen1) and esophagectomy in patients with esophageal cancer. 

Model performance:
Predictive factors for death in patients with esophageal carcinoma included in the nomogram were: cN+ (HR 1.31, 95%CI 1.01 – 1.69), ypT-stage (HR for ypT1 1.19, 95%CI 0.79 – 1.80, p=0.441; and ypT2-3 in relation to ypT0 1.50, 95%CI 1.07 – 2.11, p=0.020), ypN-stage (HR 2.51, 95%CI 1.89 – 3.31; HR 3.14, 95%CI 2.25 – 4.36 and HR 6.34, 95%CI 4.16 – 9.58, respectively for ypN1, ypN2, ypN3 with ypN0 as reference), cardiovascular comorbidity (HR 1.37, 95%CI 1.08 – 1.71), chyle leak (HR 1.51, 95%CI 1.07 – 2.11) and pulmonary complications (HR 1.53, 95%CI 1.20 – 1.94). The C-statistic was 0.70 (0.69 to 0.70).

Source:
A reference to the published paper will be placed here.
(Accepted in British Journal of Surgery, DOI: 10.1002/bjs.11476)

References:
1. van Hagen P, Hulshof MCCM, van Lanschot JJB, et al. Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy for Esophageal or Junctional Cancer. N Engl J Med. 2012;366(22):2074-2084. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1112088.
2. Rice TW, Patil DT, Blackstone EH. 8th edition AJCC/UICC staging of cancers of the esophagus and esophagogastric junction: application to clinical practice. Ann Cardiothorac Surg. 2017 Mar; 6(2): 119–130.

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